Enter what you have to bet with, the market price, and what you think the real chance is. Uses the Kelly Criterion, the standard maths for bet sizing.
The YES price on Polymarket or Kalshi. 65 means 65¢, which is the market saying a 65% chance.
Must be higher than the market price, or there is nothing in it for you.
Your advantage--
Full Kelly (aggressive)--
Half Kelly (recommended)--
Quarter Kelly (conservative)--
If you win--
If you lose--
How to use it: Half Kelly is what most traders use. It grows about 75% as fast with half the swings. Never bet more than 5% of your money on a single market, even if Kelly says to.
No advantage? If your estimate is at or below the market price, Kelly says do not bet. The market already knows what you know.